COMPUTE! ISSUE 58 / MARCH 1985 / PAGE 58
On The Road With Fred
D'Ignazio
Intelligent
Appliances,
Canadian Showers,
Toddlers,
And Mice
Recently I was Science Guest of Honor at the ninth annual Rovacon
science fiction convention in Roanoke, Virginia. Among my duties were
presenting science scholarships to young people, sitting on panel
discussions about computers, science, and technology, and delivering a
speech. One of the things I talked about was the career opportunities
for young people in the future world of intelligent appliances.
You don't hear much talk about intelligent
appliances. Personal computers are currently the hot item. Computer
software alone has turned into a major business. Four thousand
companies now make almost 30,000 programs. Last year people bought more
than $2.3 billion worth of software. Experts predict that by 1987 more
than $11 billion worth of software will be sold. That would make the
computer software industry larger than the book publishing industry!
But what some people may not realize is that not all
of the software sold in 1987 will be for desktop computers. The desktop
computer is only one star in a constellation of intelligent appliances
that will soon be found in people's homes, offices, and classrooms.
The key to the future is not the personal computer;
it is the computer microchip-the
little flake of silicon with thousands of transistors embedded in its
hair-thin surface. Most computers now use dozens of these little
microchips, and they have allowed computers to shrink smaller and
smaller. Like Alice in Wonderland, growing smaller has enabled
computers to enter new worlds.
A Computer In Your
Clothes
In the near future, all sorts of commonplace items will have
microcomputers embedded inside them. And with computers come
intelligence. We will have intelligent desks, intelligent walls,
intelligent refrigerators, even intelligent clothes. With
microcomputers inside our clothes we will be able to drape ourselves in
intelligence.
We're already beginning to see microcomputers buried
in people's bodies (in pacemakers and prosthetic limbs) or riding on a
person's hip. Deaf people are using belt-mounted microcomputers to
hear; people with impaired vision are using computers to see.
Intelligent appliances of the future will do more
than just compute. They will also have sensors-electronic sense organs.
Thus, they will be aware of the world around them. And they will have
tiny voices to alert a person when something is wrong, or just to begin
a conversation or give a status report.
Certainly there will be "computers" and "robots"
(mobile computers with arms and/or wheels) in the future. But these
will make up only a fraction of the crowd of intelligent machines that
will move into our schools, offices, and homes.
Many of these machines still haven't been
invented-or even imagined. Experts forecast a huge growth in the
intelligent appliance industry. Intelligent appliances will open up
tremendous career opportunities for young people entering the job
market in the 1990s and the twenty-first century.
Opportunity Knocks
The opportunities will come in at least four areas. First, we'll need inventors to dream up these new
appliances. Undoubtedly, there will be a new crop of millionaires in
the late 1980s and 1990s who will get their start in basement and
garage workshops.
Second, someone with business savvy and
entrepreneurial abilities will have to manufacture and market these new
intelligent appliances. As events in the personal computer industry
have shown, this is the area where the biggest fortunes can be made.
Third, there is going to be a great need for software developers to program the
appliances.
Fourth, there will be a need for communicators and educators who can
make the appliances friendly, useful, and understandable to the average
person.
The average person is already overwhelmed by talking
cars, intelligent telephones, digital watches with 40 functions, and
computerized bank tellers. But these machines are just the tip of the
intelligent-appliance iceberg. We will soon be surrounded by babbling,
rolling, and beeping intelligent machines.
To make matters worse, the machines will seem to be
telepathic. They will be communicating at millions of bits a second by
radio or infrared signals, and their conversations will be unseen and
unheard. Human beings will rarely have a clue about what is going on
within their own appliances' brains.
Older people, especially, will need help adjusting
to this world. And this help can be turned into million-dollar careers
for smart young people who can hold their elders' hands and gently lead
them into the brave new world of intelligent appliances.
Bathroom Antics
In my column in the October 1984 COMPUTE!, I related a humorous
anecdote about an experience I had while attending an educational
computing conference in Toronto, Canada. I couldn't figure out how to
turn off the shower in my hotel room. I wrote: "I clenched my teeth and
coldly reasoned that if the shower didn't shut off by turning to the
right, it must have a reverse screw in the handle. This made sense. I
was in Canada, wasn't I? Canada is a foreign country. In Canada they
probably used reverse screws for everything."
To turn off the water, I reasoned that I had to turn
the handle to the left. I did this and got a blast of hot water. At
this point I realized that I was not dealing with a left-right handle,
but a push-pull handle. I
immediately pushed the handle, and the shower turned off.
Since the article appeared, I have received numerous
letters from readers in Canada who have complained about my
anti-Canadian article and my bad-mouthing Canadian showers. Here is an
example.
"Dear Fred: In your article that was published in
the October issue of COMPUTE!, you said 'I was in Canada, wasn't I?
Canada is a foreign country. In Canada they probably used reverse
screws for everything.' Well, in Canada we don't have reverse screws
for everything. We use screws with right threads. I hope you were not
saying this to be insulting to Canadians. I am a Canadian and proud of
it. You might have offended several Canadians by that quote. I hope
that you said it as a joke. Please send a reply. I am only 14 years of
age and enjoy reading COMPUTE! and your articles. Sincerely yours,
David Kirsch, Chilliwack, British Columbia."
In response to David's letter and all the others I
received from Canadian readers, I'm very sorry if I offended you. I was
poking fun at my self, not Canadians. I definitely did not mean
anything negative about Canada or Canadian showers. It's just that
often, things are done differently (and
perhaps better) in other countries - including Canada.
(Maybe in my next column, just to set things right,
I'll tell everyone about the shower I used in New Orleans at the
Softcon Conference that squirted mud
at me when I turned it on!)
Of Mice And Kids
I was talking the other night with Owen Greeson of MicroStuf, Inc.
MicroStuf makes some wonderful products, including Crosstalk XVI (a communications
program), InfoScope (a
playful data base manager), and Remote
(a program that lets you call your office computer from home-or
anywhere else-and run it remotely like a mainframe computer).
Greeson and I were talking about ways to improve
software to make it more "useraccommodating" (Greeson's term). Our
discussion reminded him of his experience with his four-year-old
daughter,
Mikalee. Greeson had brought home an Apple Macintosh computer recently
and had taught Mikalee how to use MacPaint
(the drawing program) and the Macintosh mouse.
Mikalee really took to the mouse and became so adept
at using MacPaint that she
even began helping her father. Greeson said he had previously
introduced her to a computer without a mouse, but she had balked at
using the computer keyboard. Now, with the mouse, there was no stopping
her. She had no trouble rolling the mouse around on the table, pushing
the buttons, pointing at little pictures on the screen (icons), pulling
down menus, and selecting commands. According to Greeson, the
experience was so dramatic that he has become a "born-again icon
believer."
I've told you this story because I've found the same
thing to be true around my house. We, too, have a Macintosh, and my
eight-year-old daughter Catie and my five-year-old son Eric love it.
And I think that they love it because they can use the mouse and avoid
the keyboard.
What do you think?
Have your children had a chance to play with a mouse on a computer? If
so, how have they done? Do you think that mice are a shortcut to
computer literacy for young children? Please write and tell me your
experiences:
Fred
D'Ignazio
2117 Carter Road SW
Roanoke, VA 24015